How the Memphis Housing Market Will Change in 2025

Forecasts for 2025 expected the Memphis housing market to keep rising at a steady pace, with more inventory and possibly cheaper mortgages. By fall 2026, the picture is calmer than that: prices are roughly flat, fewer homes are selling, and mortgage rates are higher than they were a year ago. In September 2026, the median sales price in the Memphis Area Association of REALTORS® market was $225,000, down 2.2% from a year earlier, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.40% in mid-October, up from 6.27% a year before. This guide, updated in October 2026, explains what changed, what it means for buyers, sellers and renters, and what to watch next. If a move is part of your plan, Spyder Moving and Storage has a Memphis office at 3290 New Getwell Rd and handles local and long-distance moves across Shelby County.

What is the Memphis housing market like right now?

The short answer: stable prices, slower sales and buyers with more time to decide. The Memphis Area Association of REALTORS® (MAAR), which tracks sales in Shelby, Fayette, Tipton, Hardin, Hardeman and McNairy counties, reported 1,257 home sales in September 2026, down 13.7% from September 2025. Year to date, the median price is still slightly up, so the market is not falling so much as stalling. These are the latest figures available as of October 2026:

Put simply, sellers are still getting close to last year’s prices, but homes take longer to sell and fewer buyers are closing. If you are timing a home sale and a move together, Spyder’s Memphis movers can schedule around a closing date that shifts, which happens more often when homes sit longer.

Are home prices dropping in Memphis?

Not in a meaningful way. The September 2026 median slipped 2.2% year over year, but the year-to-date median is up 2.2%, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index for the Memphis metro rose about 1.8% between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. That is essentially flat once inflation is considered. Prices still vary a lot by neighborhood: well-kept homes in sought-after areas sell close to asking, while dated homes and properties in areas with high vacancy are more likely to see price cuts.

How did the 2025 predictions hold up?

The 2025 outlook for Memphis got some things right and some wrong:

• Prices: Forecasts expected moderate growth. In reality, growth slowed to roughly flat by 2026.
• Mortgage rates: Many buyers hoped for lower rates. Instead, Freddie Mac’s 30-year average was 7.40% in October 2026, more than a point higher than a year earlier.
• Demand: The expectation was strong demand from newcomers. Sales volume fell instead, and Census estimates show the metro population edging down, not up.
• Inventory: More homes were expected to hit the market. With 4,910 listings in September 2026, buyers do have choices, but not a flood of them.

What is driving the Memphis real estate market in 2026?

Three forces explain most of what buyers and sellers are seeing: borrowing costs, population and property taxes after the 2025 reappraisal.

Mortgage rates are the biggest factor

Higher rates shrink what buyers can afford, even when prices hold still. On a typical Memphis home, a jump of a full percentage point adds a noticeable amount to the monthly payment, which is why sales slowed in 2026 while prices held up. Homeowners who locked in low rates years ago are also less willing to sell, which keeps inventory from growing quickly. Freddie Mac publishes the national rate survey every Thursday, and it is the easiest number to watch. If you are relocating within the area and need a flexible move date, local movers in Memphis TN can help bridge the gap between closing and move-in.

Is Memphis gaining or losing population?

Slightly losing. Census Bureau estimates published through FRED put the Memphis metro (Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas) at about 1,341,400 residents in 2025, down from about 1,345,600 in 2024. The city of Memphis had about 619,000 residents in the 2020–2024 American Community Survey. A shrinking population keeps demand modest and is one reason prices have not climbed faster. Some of the listings come from households leaving the area, and the reasons people are leaving Tennessee and why some residents are leaving Memphis help explain that side of the market. At the same time, the suburbs and growing communities around the city still draw new households, and long-distance movers from Memphis see moves in both directions.

Property taxes after the 2025 reappraisal

Shelby County reappraises real property on a four-year cycle. The most recent reappraisal took effect in 2025, and the next one is scheduled for 2029. In Tennessee, residential property is assessed at 25% of its appraised value, and your bill equals the assessed value times the local tax rate per $100, so a higher appraisal does not automatically mean a higher bill if rates are adjusted. The Tennessee Comptroller explains the math in its guide on how to calculate your property tax bill. Local rules matter too: zoning and building permits in Memphis shape how much new housing can be built and where.

Who is buying and selling in Memphis now?

Memphis remains one of the more affordable large metros in the South, and that shapes who is active in the market. First-time buyers look for homes in the lower and middle price ranges, where competition is strongest. Investors continue to buy single-family homes to rent out, since a majority of Memphis homes are renter-occupied: about 55% in the 2020–2024 Census estimates. Older homeowners downsizing into smaller homes or retirement communities add listings, especially in established suburbs.

Higher rates have also changed behavior. Buyers who need to stretch their budget are looking farther out, in places like Bartlett, Cordova and Collierville, or choosing smaller homes. Sellers who do not have to move are often waiting. If you are buying a larger home in the suburbs, furniture movers from Memphis TN can move bulky items without you renting a truck.

Is it better to rent or buy in Memphis right now?

It depends on how long you plan to stay. According to the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, the median gross rent in Memphis was $1,181 a month in the 2020–2024 estimates, up from $1,123 in the 2019–2023 estimates. The median value of an owner-occupied home was $169,000, up from $157,100. Keep in mind that these Census figures describe all existing homes and leases, so current listing prices and new leases often run higher, and MAAR’s median sales price covers a six-county area that includes pricier suburbs.

With mortgage rates above 7%, renting can make more sense if you may move again within a few years or need time to build savings. Buying makes more sense if you plan to stay longer, have a solid down payment, and find a home priced close to its recent sales history. Renters should still move quickly on good units, and a few proven tactics for finding rentals in a competitive market can give you an edge over other applicants.

Which Memphis neighborhoods and suburbs should you watch?

Activity is uneven across the city, so it pays to look at neighborhoods instead of the citywide median:

• Downtown and South Main: condos, lofts and apartments close to jobs, the riverfront and entertainment, popular with young professionals.
• Midtown and Cooper-Young: older homes with historic character, walkable streets and an active restaurant and arts scene.
• East Memphis: established neighborhoods with larger lots, close to shopping and major employers.
• Cordova: newer subdivisions inside the city with more space per dollar.
• Bartlett, Germantown and Collierville: separate suburbs with their own schools and services, often chosen by families who want more room.

For more detail, see our guides to the best Memphis neighborhoods for families and budget-friendly suburbs around Memphis. Spyder also has local crews for Germantown, Cordova and Bartlett. Wherever you land, moving help in Memphis is easier to book when you know your closing or lease date early.

What should buyers, sellers and investors watch next?

The next year will depend mostly on rates and inventory. These are the numbers worth checking:

• Weekly mortgage rates from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. A sustained drop would likely bring buyers back quickly.
• The monthly MAAR market statistics, usually released in the middle of the following month, for sales, median price and inventory.
• Days on market, which rose to 62 in September 2026. Rising days on market give buyers more room to negotiate.
• Your property tax bill and any rate changes adopted by Shelby County and your city.
• New Census population estimates, which show whether the metro is still losing residents.

Advice for homebuyers

Get pre-approved first, so you know exactly what a 7%-plus rate means for your monthly payment. Compare loan offers from more than one lender, and ask about first-time buyer programs such as those offered by the Tennessee Housing Development Agency. Be flexible about neighborhoods and home type, and work with a local agent who can show you recent sales on the specific streets you like. With homes sitting longer, it is reasonable to ask for repairs or closing-cost help.

Advice for sellers

Price from recent nearby sales, not from what homes sold for at the peak. Buyers in a slower market compare carefully, so homes in good condition and priced right still sell, while overpriced listings sit. Spring and early summer usually bring the most buyers, but serious buyers are active year-round when rates dip. If you need to move out before the sale closes, short-term storage services make it easier to stage an empty or lightly furnished home.

Advice for investors

Memphis still offers lower purchase prices and a large renter population, but higher rates squeeze cash flow, so run the numbers at today’s rate, not the rate you hope to refinance into. Check property taxes, insurance and repair costs carefully, and look at vacancy on the specific block, not just the city average. For setting up offices or rental units, commercial movers from Memphis and Spyder’s commercial moving services can handle furniture, equipment and turnover between tenants.

What to expect as a renter

Rent growth in Memphis has been gradual rather than sharp, and new apartment buildings give renters more options in some parts of the city. Good units in popular areas still go fast, so have your documents ready, ask about move-in specials, and read the lease terms on renewals and fees. A longer lease can lock in today’s rent if you expect to stay. Before you sign, check the neighborhood at different times of day and confirm parking and elevator access, so your Memphis moving crew can plan the move-in.

Planning a move while Memphis home prices hold steady?

The Memphis housing market in 2026 is steady rather than booming: prices are close to last year, sales are slower, and higher mortgage rates are the main thing holding buyers back. That gives patient buyers more room to negotiate and rewards sellers who price realistically. Whatever your next step is, Spyder Moving and Storage can help with local, long-distance, packing and storage services from its Memphis office. Get a free estimate for your Memphis move, or call 901-329-9064 to check dates.